AFL PLAYER PROPS
The model the bookies wish you wouldn't read.
Eleven factors per pick — DvP, form, venue, weather, pace, matchups and more — combined into ranked over/under picks across disposals, goals, marks and fantasy. Backtested. Self-improving.
Free every round
Projection leaderboards
| Top projected ball-winners | Proj disp |
|---|---|
| Marcus BontempelliMID | 32.6 |
| Tim TarantoMID | 32.2 |
| Caleb SerongMID | 31.9 |
| Andrew BrayshawMID | 31.8 |
| Jordan DawsonMID | 31.2 |
What you get
A signal, not a guess
Four markets, one model
Disposals, goals, marks and fantasy — every player on every team sheet gets a projection vs the bookmaker's line.
Eleven factors per pick
DvP, form, venue split, weather, team style, line edge, rest/travel, pace, head-to-head, role/TOG, status.
Self-improving
Each week the model settles every prediction, re-calibrates each factor, and retrains its weights on what's actually working.
Plain-English why
Every pick shows a headline plus a factor-by-factor breakdown — so you understand the bet, not just take it.
Open backtest
The performance page shows hit rate per prop, ROI, and per-factor calibration. Nothing hidden.
Built for the round, not the year
Picks refresh every Thursday with the round's fixtures, lines and forecasts.
Ready
See this week's edges
Eleven factors ranked, plain-English explainers, confidence scores. The leaderboards are free — no signup required.
Open the free leaderboards →